Биологическая неорганическая химия. Структура и реакционная способность (комплект из 2 книг) И. Берт

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Regression analysis is a statistical procedure based on the relationship between independent variables factors that have predictive power for the revenue or expenditure source and a dependent variable expenditure source being predicted.

Assuming a linear relationship exists between the independent and dependent variables, one or more independent variables can be used to predict future revenues or expenditures. Hybrid forecasting methods are very common in practice and can deliver superior results. Put into practice one or more of the forecasting methods described above. It may be wise to develop a range of possible forecast outcomes, with the use of different scenarios.

Multiple projections should be a part of a well-planned and thoroughly discussed approach. Three items that are essential to a compelling and informative forecast presentation include: Credibility of the forecaster. Have a transparent forecast process. Address how the forecast compares to widely accepted economic or financial forecasts from outside organizations. Describe forces acting on your revenues or expenditures that might cause the actual results to be higher or lower than the forecast.

Stay within acceptable accuracy tolerances for forecasts. Note to the audience that years estimated farther out are less reliable. Be careful about using forecasts to raise an alarm about an impending crisis. A good forecast presentation revolves around a clear message. The following steps can be helpful in promoting clarity: A clear, simple, and reasoned statement of the forecast message is vital. Build the message around a baseline set of assumptions that represent a reasonable level of consistency with status quo conditions.

Such exceptions should be clearly stated. The assumptions should be made very clear, and be supplemented with salient information. The forecaster should explain how the assumptions lead to the forecast, without delving into the details of the specific methods. The message should address the implications of the forecast in terms of budget shortfalls or surpluses, changes in reserve levels, and other metrics that would be meaningful to the audience.

Involving other staff in the forecasting process in these steps will also help ensure that understanding of the method is shared by key potential supporters. It may even prove possible to involve other staff directly in the presentation, which may increase credibility. Linking forecast to decision-making. In order to maximize decision? This means imparting a long? The following financial policies might be particularly helpful for promoting interest in financial forecasting: A reserve policy, which establishes the desired level of reserves to maintain.